More Reports and Articles
Back to the main Results page
Links
1999 WORLD TANTRIX - QUARTER-FINAL / 5TH PLACE PREVIEW by JAMIE SNEDDON
Many thanks to Jamie for writing this report. Elo predictions and additional silly comments made by the 'editor' are in red.
Well, we're near the end of the Round 3 now, and I think we've all learned the hazards of making predictions. Of the top 8 seeds (and therefore the
players we would 'expect' to be in the quarter-finals), only 3 have made it
through. One unseeded player is still in the running, satisfying the
expectations of his Fantasy Tantrix supporters.
Now that the initial confusion of Round 1 is out of the way, it seems that
most people are adept at converting to and from GMT, and it is quite common
to appear in the lobby and find a tournament game underway. There are a lot
of players in the Plate who have quite a good chance of winning, and I
won't tempt fate by making any predictions!
With the Round 3 matches almost complete, it's interesting to look first at how
things are stacked in the 5th Place Playoffs, or as I prefer, the 'Methadone Cup'. It'll also be interesting to see if, in the end, one of the losing main draw quarter-finalists wins this competition or if one of those who went out in the last 16 gets their 'revenge' :-)
A number of good players have gone through into the Methadone Cup, and it
is hard to pick a clear favourite. Putting aside family loyalty, which
shouts 'Of course Runes will win' ;-), the Runes-mikem match will be very
hard-fought, with mikem having a lot to prove after being beaten by the
only unseeded player left in the Main draw. Mike won their only previous
tournament game in the Pacific Champs, so perhaps Runes has something to
prove too! Pre-WTC Elo ratings predict 49-31 or 3-1 to mikem.
Another surprise so far, losing Pepe from the main draw, might mean he also has a lot to prove in the coming rounds. Pre-WTC Elo ratings also predict 54-26 or 3.5-0.5 to AlexK v Justin, though based on WTC results so far, their ratings are already likely to be much closer after the WTC.
In the main draw, where I have somehow remained :-), it's getting harder and harder to see who has a clear superiority in any match. Definitely - apart from having a hunch that whoever wins QF4 might well win the whole tournament, I wouldn't like to predict any of the matches.
Amazingly enough, Mighty and Pekko both live in Auckland, NZ, and are school friends (or perhaps enemies, by the way the rivalry seems to go!), and it should be a hard fought game, reported at school after each new development. Almost a pity they played it all on one day really ... :-)
Two controllers come up against each other in the quarter-finals; hopefully there won't be any confusion with time conversions or rules in those games. Steven has the incentive that if he loses against another Aucklander, Ridcully, he may play his tournament nemesis ddyer in the Methadone Cup. Otherwise known as the "nightmare scenario"! Pre-WTC Elo ratings predict 70.5-69.5 (or 3.5-3.5 and a tiebreak win?) to Ridcully, who was seeded slightly lower, at 12 to Steven's 10, only because his Elo rating was based on a low number of games.
According to the seedings, the Crispy-Zazza match (the 5th and 4th seeds) should be a close one.Pre-WTC Elo ratings predict 83-57 or 5-2 to Crispy, but again this may be misleading because their ratings are already likely to be much closer once WTC results so far are taken into account.
Bdot still waits at this stage to find out if her opponent is lolo or offpiste. Being the only female player left in the Main Draw will probably make her even more determined! If it is lolo she ends up playing, seeing two of the Tantrix 'pros' slug it out could be quite a spectacle.
I'm not prepared to make any predictions for the Quarter Finals, other
than to say that at least one New Zealander will reach the Semi Finals.
;-) Beyond that, we'll just have to wait and see...
Links